In this paper we analyze the structure of the library market for scientific
and technical (ST) serials. The analysis takes the form of an exercise aimed
at a theoretical reconstruction of the ST serials holdings of LSU Libraries
after almost a decade of massive cancellations and a policy of adding no new
subscriptions. This exercise was done in conjunction with the Louisiana State
University (LSU) Serials Redesign Project (SRP), and it utilized an experimental
computer program called the Serials Evaluator. Much of the paper is devoted
to a dismission of the set definitions, measures, and algorithms necessary in
the design (of a computer program to appraise ST serials.
LSU faculty ratings were utilized as the main measure of ST value, and we investigated
the nature as well as the strengths and weaknesses of faculty ratings. Chemistry
played the role of the test discipline, and other ST fields were investigated
to determine whether the processes affecting chemistry are also active in them.
We develop the hypothesis that human knowledge functions on the same probability
structure as biological nature and society. We show that this probability structure
results in the highly skewed, stable distributions that characterize the social
stratification system of science and technology as well as of the serials system
based upon it.
Science and technology are seen in this paper as dominated by stable elites,
who tend to center around traditionally prestigious institutions and publish
their work in U.S. association journals. Consequently, U.S. association serials
have higher ST value, and they play a dominant role not only in internal library
use but also in interlibrary loan. Due to their higher ST value, U.S. association
journals can be sold to libraries in greater numbers at cheaper prices than
the journals of commercial publishers, and this causes the ST serials market
to bifurcate, with ST value tending to concentrate on the U. S. association
serials and costs on the commercial ones.
As a result of the highly skewed, stable nature of the ST serials system, the
ST serials holdings of LSU Libraries were found to have suffered little damage,
despite almost a decade of massive cancellations and no new subscriptions in
the face of an exponentially growing serials population. To bring the serials
holdings at LSU Libraries up to optimal level in 33 ST disciciplines, it was
estimated that only 118 new subscriptions costing $$1,852 were needed, and of
these much of the perceived value derived from 53 titles that cost $39,948.
Moreover, it was still possible to cancel subscriptions to another 342 titles
that cost $222,409 without materially affecting the perceived value of LSU Libraries'
serials holdings in the 33 disciplines. We see no solution to the present crisis
of the ST serials system in its present form, through technology, cooperative
collection development, or consortia, and we state that librarians will have
to change the nature of this system by utilizing the new technology's capability
of delivering information rapidly to move from subscriptions to a free market
in ST information through document delivery.